What Happened To Paul Skenes?
Skenes looked untouchable through mid‑May, carving hitters with the same overpowering precision that won him the 2025 Cy Young. Now, for the first time in his young career, the league is punching back — and the numbers reveal a stunning shift that Pittsburgh can’t ignore.
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By Rob Olds
The North Texas Sports Blog
July 11, 2026
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Paul Skenes spent 2025 redefining what dominance looks like from a young ace. His final record — an almost comically modest 10–10 — disguised the reality that he was the most overpowering pitcher in baseball. He led the sport with a 1.97 ERA, paced the National League with a 0.948 WHIP, struck out 216 in 187.2 innings, and allowed only 136 hits all season. Every outing felt like a clinic in power pitching: fastballs exploding at the top of the zone, sliders diving out of sight, hitters walking back to the dugout shaking their heads. The Cy Young Award wasn’t a debate; it was a coronation.
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He carried that aura straight into 2026. Through May 12, Skenes looked even better than the version that terrorized the league the year before. He opened the season 6–2 with a 1.98 ERA, 56 strikeouts, 7 walks, and just 25 hits allowed in 50 innings. His command was surgical, his efficiency elite, and his confidence unmistakable. The Pirates were winning his starts because he was dictating every inning — controlling tempo, attacking hitters, and forcing opponents to adjust to him rather than the other way around.
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Then, almost overnight, the rhythm broke.
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Since his sixth win on May 12, Skenes has endured the first extended slump of his professional career. Over his last 10 starts, he is 1–6 with a 5.09 ERA, allowing 59 hits, 16 walks, and 53 innings that have looked nothing like the machine-like dominance he displayed earlier. The strikeouts are still there — 67 in those 53 innings — but everything around them has shifted. The game logs show shorter outings, more stressful innings, rising pitch counts, and a noticeable uptick in hard contact. For the first time, hitters are not over matched. They’re competing. They’re adjusting. And Skenes is searching.
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The diagnostic picture points to several intertwined issues. First, his command has wavered. Early in the season, he lived in the zone with confidence, getting ahead 0–1 and 1–2 with ease. Lately, he’s fallen behind more often, nibbling instead of attacking, and giving hitters the leverage they previously never enjoyed. That shift alone changes everything — when Skenes is behind, hitters can sit on the fastball, shorten their swings, and force him into deeper counts.
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Second, his pitch efficiency has cratered. The game logs show him routinely hitting 90–100 pitches by the fifth inning, a stark contrast to the six- and seven-inning outings that defined his early-season success. More foul balls, more three-ball counts, and fewer quick outs have created a snowball effect: shorter starts, more bullpen exposure, and fewer chances to settle into the rhythm that makes him so dangerous.
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Third, the contact quality against him has changed. Opponents are squaring up his fastball more often, especially in the middle innings. His slider — once a wipeout pitch — has occasionally flattened, likely due to small release-point inconsistencies or fatigue. None of this suggests injury; it suggests timing, mechanics, and confidence slipping just enough to matter.
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And finally, there’s the psychological layer. Dominance in baseball isn’t just physical — it’s emotional. Skenes has pitched his entire professional life with the aura of inevitability. Hitters stepped in already beaten. When that aura cracks, even slightly, the pitcher must adjust. He must evolve. Every great ace has faced this moment: the league catches up, scouting reports sharpen, and the pitcher must respond with a new level of precision and adaptability. Skenes is now in that crucible.
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The good news for Pittsburgh is that the path forward is clear. Skenes’ stuff remains elite. His velocity hasn’t dipped. His strikeout rate is still among the best in baseball. What he needs is re calibration — a return to first-pitch aggression, a tightening of his fastball command, and a renewed trust in his slider. The Pirates can help by adjusting his workload, giving him an extra day when possible, and revisiting his pitch sequencing to counter the league’s adjustments. A brief reset — mechanical, mental, or both — could be all he needs.
This slump isn’t a fall from grace; it’s a rite of passage. Every ace encounters the moment when hitters stop being surprised. The great ones respond by becoming sharper, smarter, and more complete. Paul Skenes has already shown he has the talent to dominate. Now he has the opportunity to show he has the resilience to evolve. The next chapter of his career will be defined not by this slump, but by how he climbs out of it — and there’s every reason to believe he will emerge stronger than ever.