The 2026 NL Cy Young Race: Misiorowski’s Meteor vs. Sale’s Ageless Heat
A 24‑year‑old phenom and a 37‑year‑old legend are locked in a Cy Young duel that will likely come down to the season's final weekend — but only one is separating from the pack.
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By Rob Olds
The North Texas Sports Blog
August 27, 2026
There are seasons that define a pitcher. There are seasons that define an era. And then, every once in a while, baseball gives us a season that feels like it’s bending the sport’s physics.
As we approach September, the National League Cy Young race has crystallized into a two‑man duel between Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee’s 24‑year‑old supernova, and Chris Sale, Atlanta’s 37‑year‑old left‑handed legend who refuses to fade. Both are brilliant. Both are essential to their clubs. But only one is leading the race — and the numbers make the argument with thunderous clarity.
Misiorowski’s stat line reads like something out of a baseball fever dream:
2026… 145.0 IP… ERA 1.68… WHIP 0.759… K% 39.3… RE24 40.84… ERA+ 247
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His RE24 of 40.84 underscores just how dominant he has been in controlling innings and neutralizing scoring threats. RE24 measures the change in run expectancy across all 24 base/out states, rewarding pitchers who consistently erase danger and win high‑leverage moments. A typical “good” starter might finish a season around +5 to +10; elite arms push into the +20 range. Misiorowski sitting above +40 places him in the rare territory reserved for true aces, the kind who don’t just prevent runs — they reshape the entire run environment of a game. It’s the statistical signature of a pitcher who repeatedly steps into stressful situations and walks out having reduced the opponent’s scoring odds, a hallmark of sustainable, repeatable dominance.
This isn’t dominance. This is detonation. Misiorowski has spent five months turning major league hitters into props in his personal highlight reel. His 39.3% strikeout rate is the highest ever recorded by an NL starter with a full workload. His walk rate has collapsed from 11.4% to 6.0%, transforming raw power into refined, surgical destruction.
Opponents are batting .152 against him. Let that sit for a moment. A .152 batting average — in the modern game, against modern hitters, with modern scouting. His batted‑ball profile is equally absurd: a 33.0% hard‑hit rate, a 21.2% line‑drive rate, and a 43.8% ground‑ball rate. Hitters aren’t just failing to square him up — they’re failing to make contact that resembles professional baseball. Misiorowski’s season is the kind of campaign that becomes a reference point. A measuring stick. A “where were you when this kid arrived?” moment.
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Misiorowski's Last Five Outings
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Across Jacob Misiorowski’s last five outings, the through‑line is unmistakable: he’s winning games not with raw electricity alone, but with a fully matured, fully weaponized understanding of how to deploy it. Four wins in five starts, all six‑inning efforts except the seven‑inning stand in Anaheim, and not once did he allow more than three earned runs. What jumps off the page is how consistent the miss‑bat profile has become. In every one of these starts he punched out at least six hitters, peaking at ten against the Angels, and he did it while keeping the ball in the yard — just one homer allowed across 31 innings. Even when the command wavered slightly, like the two‑walk frames against New York and Atlanta, he countered with poise: limiting damage, forcing weak contact, and controlling tempo. The Game Scores tell the same story: 64, 68, 63, 60, 74 — a pitcher who has settled into a groove where “above average” is the floor and “dominant” is the expectation.
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But the deeper layer — the one coaches and scouts obsess over — is how he’s shaping contact. Misiorowski’s ground‑ball and fly‑ball distribution has stabilized into a profile that keeps hitters guessing and prevents any lineup from sitting on a single attack angle. Across these five starts, he generated 31 grounders and 43 fly balls, with only 15 line drives — a ratio that screams sustainable suppression of hard contact. His strike‑to‑pitch efficiency has also sharpened: 53 strikes on 89 pitches vs. the Mets, 55 on 96 vs. Atlanta, and a surgical 70 strikes on 94 against Minnesota. That’s the hallmark of a pitcher who knows exactly when to challenge and when to expand. Even in the lone loss, he delivered seven innings of two‑run ball with ten strikeouts and a season‑high 18 called strikes — a performance that would win most nights. What we’re seeing is a young ace who has crossed the threshold from “high‑ceiling” to “high‑floor,” and that’s when dominance becomes repeatable.
Sale’s 2026 season deserves reverence:
2026… 135.0 IP… ERA 2.20… WHIP 1.030… K% 30.6… ERA+ 190… RE24 28.65.
Sale’s RE24 of 28.65 reflects a pitcher who is still operating at an elite, run‑suppressing level — even if he doesn’t quite reach the stratosphere Misiorowski occupies. Where Misiorowski’s +40.84 signals a young ace overwhelming innings with sheer dominance, Sale’s number shows a veteran left‑hander winning with sequencing, command, and experience. A +28 RE24 places Sale well above the typical elite threshold and confirms that he’s consistently reducing scoring odds in high‑leverage moments. The difference between the two isn’t effectiveness so much as style: Misiorowski erases danger with overpowering stuff, while Sale manipulates run expectancy through precision and pitch craft. Both profiles are Cy Young‑caliber, but Sale’s RE24 tells the story of a pitcher who controls innings through mastery rather than raw force — a late‑career evolution that remains every bit as valuable.
At 37, Sale is still carving hitters with the same demonic angle and late life that defined his prime. His strikeout rate remains elite. His walk rate is pristine. His command has sharpened with age, not dulled. Sale’s game logs show a pitcher who still owns the moment — six innings, one run; seven innings, none; six innings, two. He has been the backbone of an Atlanta rotation that has needed every ounce of his steadiness. If not for Misiorowski, Sale would be the runaway favorite. He is having a Cy Young season. Just not the Cy Young season.
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Sale's Last Five Outings
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What Chris Sale has done over his last five outings is a masterclass in veteran recalibration — a pitcher who can still overwhelm with sheer velocity and weaponize precision, sequencing, and competitive cruelty. Last night's shutout against the Dodgers is the obvious headline: nine innings, eleven strikeouts, zero walks, 80 strikes on 109 pitches, and a Game Score of 88 that would’ve fit right in during his peak White Sox years. But the real story is how repeatable his dominance has become even in games where the offense doesn’t show up. Across these five starts, Sale allowed just six earned runs in 33 innings, never gave up a homer, and struck out 43 hitters while walking only two. That’s not just control — that’s command at a level only elite lefties ever reach. Even in the losses, he kept his team in every game, delivering six innings of one‑run ball against Arizona and a six‑inning, two‑run effort in Milwaukee that would normally be enough to win.
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Sale's slider is still a nightmare, but what’s changed is how he’s pairing it with elevated four‑seamers and back‑door two‑seamers to steal called strikes (23 vs. LAD, 21 vs. ARI). Even in the lone outing where he bent — the 5-4 loss to the Yankees — he still punched out eight and walked only two, with a Game Score of 56 that reflects a pitcher who never truly loses the plot. Sale’s last five starts show a veteran who has fully embraced the late‑career evolution: fewer wasted pitches, more surgical intent, and a competitive floor that keeps Atlanta in every game he touches.
When comparing two elite pitchers, the margins matter. And the margins all tilt toward Milwaukee’s phenom. Misiorowski’s 1.68 ERA dwarfs Sale’s 2.20. His strikeout rate is nearly nine percentage points higher. His opponent batting average is seventy points lower. His WAR, WPA, and RE24 all outpace Sale’s by meaningful, award‑shaping margins. Sale is elite. Misiorowski is historic.
If the season ended today, the NL Cy Young would belong to Jacob Misiorowski, and it wouldn’t require a recount. Sale has been magnificent — a testament to longevity, craft, and competitive fire. But Misiorowski is delivering a season that feels like the beginning of something seismic. A season that will be remembered long after the award is handed out. The NL doesn’t just have a Cy Young leader. It has a Cy Young force. And as September approaches, the gap is widening, not shrinking.
Baseball rarely gives us a moment where the past and future collide with equal brilliance. 2026 is one of those moments. Chris Sale is writing the final great chapter of a Hall of Fame career. Jacob Misiorowski is writing the first great chapter of what might become one. But only one man stands atop the National League right now. The Cy Young is Misiorowski’s to lose.
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NTSB North Texas Sports Blog
© 2026 North Texas Sports Blog | Feature written by Rob Olds at the NTSB Analytics Desk
Statistical sources: Baseball Reference, StatMuse, Baseball Almanac